How Many Infections in Your State?

A recent post on how many Americans have been infected discusses the issues relating to estimating the true number of infections in the United States. The post outlines a relatively simply method of using the estimated Infection Fatality Rate to extrapolate the number of infections.

Updated 11/23/2020

StateDeathsPopulationInfected*Percent*
Alabama3,4594,903,185691,80014.11
Alaska102731,54520,4002.79
Arizona6,4647,278,7171,292,80017.76
Arkansas2,3573,017,804471,40015.62
California18,72739,512,2233,745,4009.48
Colorado2,8065,758,736561,2009.75
Connecticut4,8283,565,287965,60027.08
Delaware748973,764149,60015.36
District Of Columbia672705,749134,40019.04
Florida18,00521,477,7373,601,00016.77
Georgia9,19810,617,4231,839,60017.33
Hawaii2331,415,87246,6003.29
Idaho8491,787,065169,8009.50
Illinois12,05112,671,8212,410,20019.02
Indiana5,3056,732,2191,061,00015.76
Iowa2,2053,155,070441,00013.98
Kansas1,4102,913,314282,0009.68
Kentucky1,7874,467,673357,4008.00
Louisiana6,2604,648,7941,252,00026.93
Maine1771,344,21235,4002.63
Maryland4,4486,045,680889,60014.71
Massachusetts10,5126,892,5032,102,40030.50
Michigan8,8759,986,8571,775,00017.77
Minnesota3,2975,639,632659,40011.69
Mississippi3,6762,976,149735,20024.70
Missouri3,7856,137,428757,00012.33
Montana6031,068,778120,60011.28
Nebraska9051,934,408181,0009.36
Nevada2,0173,080,156403,40013.10
New Hampshire5121,359,711102,4007.53
New Jersey16,8918,882,1903,378,20038.03
New Mexico1,3832,096,829276,60013.19
New York34,23319,453,5616,846,60035.19
North Carolina5,03410,488,0841,006,8009.60
North Dakota840762,062168,00022.05
Ohio5,99611,689,1001,199,20010.26
Oklahoma1,6343,956,971326,8008.26
Oregon8204,217,737164,0003.89
Pennsylvania9,91712,801,9891,983,40015.49
Rhode Island1,2941,059,361258,80024.43
South Carolina4,2835,148,714856,60016.64
South Dakota819884,659163,80018.52
Tennessee4,2666,829,174853,20012.49
Texas21,16528,995,8814,233,00014.60
Utah7933,205,958158,6004.95
Vermont63623,98912,6002.02
Virginia3,9428,535,519788,4009.24
Washington2,6367,614,893527,2006.92
West Virginia6671,792,147133,4007.44
Wisconsin3,0055,822,434601,00010.32
Wyoming176578,75935,2006.08
Based on death and population data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ on 11/23/20.
* Infections are based on an estimated infection fatality rate of .05% (or 1 death in 200 infections)

These estimates work backwards from deaths to estimate how many people were likely infected to cause that many deaths. See my post on the limitations of the Case Fatality Rate to see some of the problems with using the number of positive Coronavirus tests as an accurate estimate of the number of people infected.

In the early part of the pandemic testing was so limited that positive test results vastly under estimate the number of infected people in those states where the pandemic first surged. For those states in particular, the above measurement will indicate many more people have been infected than have tested positive. Those early states show a high percentage of the state populations has been infected, with over 30% in Massachusetts, New York, and New Jersey with Louisiana close behind. Though places where the most recent spike in infections had been fierce, like North Dakota, are closing in fast with an estimated 22% of the state already infected.

Watch this post for updated figures.

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