Playing Russian Roulette with Cases

Every time the Corona Virus replicates there is a very small chance that a mutation will occur. Each time a mutation does occur there is a very small chance that the mutation will result in a variant of the virus that is more dangerous to humans. Several “variants of concern” (VOC) have arisen that have

Vaccine Waning Immunity – Israeli Data

There is has been a great deal of interest in data coming out of Israel regarding possible rapidly waning immunity of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine. This news, combined with the bad news surrounding the virus delta variant represents very discouraging news. Some have concluded that the data from Israel’s health ministry indicate that the vaccine

Ask not what your vaccine can do for you…

In a nation which enshrines the “pursuit of life, liberty and happiness” in its founding document it comes as no surprise that Americans approach many things from the “what’s in it for me” perspective. For many Americans that includes how they think about COVID-19 vaccinations. For many it comes down to a personal risk benefit

The Risks in Failing to Control Cases

No one is talking about the SARS-2 variant from New Zealand! Nor does the Taiwanese variant ever appear in the news! That is because the chances of a new and dangerous variant developing is directly proportional to the number of cases in a given area. Every time the virus replicates itself there is a really

How Many Infections in Your State?

A recent post on how many Americans have been infected discusses the issues relating to estimating the true number of infections in the United States. The post outlines a relatively simply method of using the estimated Infection Fatality Rate to extrapolate the number of infections. Updated 11/23/2020 State Deaths Population Infected* Percent* Alabama 3,459 4,903,185

Trump’s Inaugural gift to Biden

There may be a strange silver lining to Trump’s complete abandonment of all efforts to mitigate the raging conronavirus outbreak in the United States. It is possible that within a few weeks of President Elect taking office, the combination of increasing daily infections and the first 40 or so million vaccinations, the United States may

How many Americans have been infected?

It seems like a pretty simple question. But the answer is not so simple. Just like my earlier post on Case Fatality Rates, an accurate figure is made much more complicated by the high rate of mild and asymptomatic cases of the Coronavirus that often go undetected. So what are some of the ways we

Scary Numbers

It continues to astound me that this country is incapable of acting in response to clear and urgent signs of danger. It does not require advanced degrees in infectious disease to realize that the rapidly climbing infections in the United States starting in early October could lead to bad things. Lets start with the relationship

Florida Experiment – Update

About a month ago I wrote how Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ decision to remove all remaining state ordered coronavirus control measures represented an unusual “Natural Experiment” to occur regarding the effectives of government intervention in how to deal with the pandemic. At the time I promised future updates on the experiment in Florida. This is

Case Fatality Rate – What does it tell us?

By Foss Tighe During the last presidential debate, to counter Biden’s criticism of the President’s handling of the Coronavirus pandemic, President Trump referred to declines in the US Case Fatality Rate (CFR). For months now, Trump has be bragging about the decline in the CFR. What exactly is a Case Fatality Rate, what is the