Are We Betting too Heavily on a Vaccine?

There are three approaches to dealing with the Coronavirus. Crush the outbreak through testing, isolation and contact tracing Try to achieve herd immunity by letting the virus spread while protecting vulnerable populations Pursue neither of the above and wait for a vaccine Crush the Outbreak The first option is hard. It requires a well coordinatedContinue reading “Are We Betting too Heavily on a Vaccine?”

Why Pandemic “Waves”?

By Foss Tighe There is a lot of talk about a possible “Second Wave” of coronavirus infections. Why do infectious disease outbreaks come in “waves”? If infections reach some sort of peak and then begin to decline, isn’t that a sign that the outbreak is ending? The major pandemics recorded in history books appear toContinue reading “Why Pandemic “Waves”?”

Lack of a coherent plan endangers social fabric

30 million Americans have applied for unemployment Each day 2,000 Americans die of COVID-19 Which fact scares you more? Which one deserves the more urgent attention? Are their solutions mutually exclusive? Does our Government have a plan? Flattening the Curve is no longer a sufficient plan Flattening the Curve was never a complete plan forContinue reading “Lack of a coherent plan endangers social fabric”

Not a Peak, more of a Ridge Walk

By: Foss Tighe May 2, 2020 The first blog post on this site talked about what the other side of the curve might look like. It speculated that the other side of the curve would look nothing like the first side of the curve. Most of the models being used, including IHME at the UniversityContinue reading “Not a Peak, more of a Ridge Walk”

Finally Some Epidemiological Science

New York State’s recent study regarding statewide infection rates provided more epidemiological science than all of the Federal government’s contribution since the start of the pandemic. On April 23rd Governor Cuomo announced preliminary results of an antibody study designed to estimate the true number of people who have been infected with the coronavirus in NewContinue reading “Finally Some Epidemiological Science”

Lacking Coherent Containment & Surveillance Plans – What is the value of Testing?

Early on in the crisis President Trump told the American people: “Anybody that wants a test [for the coronavirus] can get a test.” This statement was wrong on multiple levels. Most concretely, there were not nearly enough tests available nor laboratory facilities available to process the tests. In fact, five weeks after his March 6thContinue reading “Lacking Coherent Containment & Surveillance Plans – What is the value of Testing?”

What does the other side of the curve look like?

In last few months a whole new set of terms have entered everyday use. There is the pandemic curve, social distancing, the need to flatten the curve, inflection points, an apex, surges, surge capacity and herd immunity. The curve was perhaps most simply expressed by Dr. Anthony Fauci early on in this crisis when heContinue reading “What does the other side of the curve look like?”

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