Not a Peak, more of a Ridge Walk

By: Foss Tighe May 2, 2020 The first blog post on this site talked about what the other side of the curve might look like. It speculated that the other side of the curve would look nothing like the first side of the curve. Most of the models being used, including IHME at the UniversityContinue reading “Not a Peak, more of a Ridge Walk”

Ode to the CDC

By: Foss TigheApril 28, 2020 It was probably during the Ebola outbreak in 2000 or 2002 when I remember hearing news reports that “epidemiologists from the Center for Disease Control in Atlanta Georgia were heading to Africa to help fight the Ebola virus…”. My heart swelled with pride and my spine tingled. Founding in theContinue reading “Ode to the CDC”

Lets Try Containment Again

By: Foss TigheApril 27, 2020 Biden would jump to the left,And Trump thinks he is right.With No hands on your lipsStrap your mask on tight.But its the nasal swabThat really drives you insane.Lets try Containment again!Lets try Containment again!Sung to the tune of “Lets do the time warp again” In Epidemiological terms, containment is theContinue reading “Lets Try Containment Again”

Finally Some Epidemiological Science

New York State’s recent study regarding statewide infection rates provided more epidemiological science than all of the Federal government’s contribution since the start of the pandemic. On April 23rd Governor Cuomo announced preliminary results of an antibody study designed to estimate the true number of people who have been infected with the coronavirus in NewContinue reading “Finally Some Epidemiological Science”

What does Containment Look Like? This is what Containment Looks like!

There is a place where the bars and restaurants are still open. Their news shows do not focus on the impending evil thing called “the surge”. They don’t watch ghoulish images of their fellow citizens in body bags over flowing their storage facilities. There is a place where the government is not digging mass graves.Continue reading “What does Containment Look Like? This is what Containment Looks like!”

Massachusetts Numbers – Fewer Deaths on Sundays

A quick glance at the Massachusetts daily coronavirus deaths might lead you to think that church services are somehow protective against coronavirus. For the last three Sundays in Massachusetts the daily death count has been substantially lower than the surrounding days. Data collection is a tricky thing, and to stick with the religious theme, oftenContinue reading “Massachusetts Numbers – Fewer Deaths on Sundays”

Lacking Coherent Containment & Surveillance Plans – What is the value of Testing?

Early on in the crisis President Trump told the American people: “Anybody that wants a test [for the coronavirus] can get a test.” This statement was wrong on multiple levels. Most concretely, there were not nearly enough tests available nor laboratory facilities available to process the tests. In fact, five weeks after his March 6thContinue reading “Lacking Coherent Containment & Surveillance Plans – What is the value of Testing?”

What does the other side of the curve look like?

In last few months a whole new set of terms have entered everyday use. There is the pandemic curve, social distancing, the need to flatten the curve, inflection points, an apex, surges, surge capacity and herd immunity. The curve was perhaps most simply expressed by Dr. Anthony Fauci early on in this crisis when heContinue reading “What does the other side of the curve look like?”

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