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The Orange Death: COVID-19 Resurgance in the United States

By Foss Tighe In mid April the Trump administration shifted policy away from their limited efforts at controlling COVID-19 to re-opening the U.S. Economy. Daily detected cases in the US had plateaued at around 30,000 cases per day. Deaths in the United States had also plateaued at around 2000 per day. Perhaps more importantly, dailyContinue reading “The Orange Death: COVID-19 Resurgance in the United States”

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Are We Betting too Heavily on a Vaccine?

There are three approaches to dealing with the Coronavirus. Crush the outbreak through testing, isolation and contact tracing Try to achieve herd immunity by letting the virus spread while protecting vulnerable populations Pursue neither of the above and wait for a vaccine Crush the Outbreak The first option is hard. It requires a well coordinatedContinue reading “Are We Betting too Heavily on a Vaccine?”

Why Pandemic “Waves”?

By Foss Tighe There is a lot of talk about a possible “Second Wave” of coronavirus infections. Why do infectious disease outbreaks come in “waves”? If infections reach some sort of peak and then begin to decline, isn’t that a sign that the outbreak is ending? The major pandemics recorded in history books appear toContinue reading “Why Pandemic “Waves”?”

Lack of a coherent plan endangers social fabric

30 million Americans have applied for unemployment Each day 2,000 Americans die of COVID-19 Which fact scares you more? Which one deserves the more urgent attention? Are their solutions mutually exclusive? Does our Government have a plan? Flattening the Curve is no longer a sufficient plan Flattening the Curve was never a complete plan forContinue reading “Lack of a coherent plan endangers social fabric”

Not a Peak, more of a Ridge Walk

By: Foss Tighe May 2, 2020 The first blog post on this site talked about what the other side of the curve might look like. It speculated that the other side of the curve would look nothing like the first side of the curve. Most of the models being used, including IHME at the UniversityContinue reading “Not a Peak, more of a Ridge Walk”

Lets Try Containment Again

By: Foss TigheApril 27, 2020 Biden would jump to the left,And Trump thinks he is right.With No hands on your lipsStrap your mask on tight.But its the nasal swabThat really drives you insane.Lets try Containment again!Lets try Containment again!Sung to the tune of “Lets do the time warp again” In Epidemiological terms, containment is theContinue reading “Lets Try Containment Again”

What does the other side of the curve look like?

In last few months a whole new set of terms have entered everyday use. There is the pandemic curve, social distancing, the need to flatten the curve, inflection points, an apex, surges, surge capacity and herd immunity. The curve was perhaps most simply expressed by Dr. Anthony Fauci early on in this crisis when heContinue reading “What does the other side of the curve look like?”