Ask not what your vaccine can do for you…

In a nation which enshrines the “pursuit of life, liberty and happiness” in its founding document it comes as no surprise that Americans approach many things from the “what’s in it for me” perspective. For many Americans that includes how they think about COVID-19 vaccinations. For many it comes down to a personal risk benefitContinue reading “Ask not what your vaccine can do for you…”

How Many Infections in Your State?

A recent post on how many Americans have been infected discusses the issues relating to estimating the true number of infections in the United States. The post outlines a relatively simply method of using the estimated Infection Fatality Rate to extrapolate the number of infections. Updated 11/23/2020 State Deaths Population Infected* Percent* Alabama 3,459 4,903,185Continue reading “How Many Infections in Your State?”

Trump’s Inaugural gift to Biden

There may be a strange silver lining to Trump’s complete abandonment of all efforts to mitigate the raging conronavirus outbreak in the United States. It is possible that within a few weeks of President Elect taking office, the combination of increasing daily infections and the first 40 or so million vaccinations, the United States mayContinue reading “Trump’s Inaugural gift to Biden”

The Great Barrington Declaration

By Foss Tighe Once again Herd Immunity is in the news. This time in the form of a declaration facilitated by a Libertarian think tank: American Institutes for Economic Research (AIER). The Great Barrington Declaration suggests that governments essentially follow the Swedish approach to the Coronavirus. Protective measures should be put into place for theContinue reading “The Great Barrington Declaration”

Herd Immunity is not an Individual Decision

By Foss Tighe In an number of prior posts I have discussed how Herd Immunity could be a valid public health strategy for dealing with COVID-19. In a recent post I outline how limited herd immunity combined with other outbreak mitigation strategies could work together to slow and reverse the pandemic. I also explore theContinue reading “Herd Immunity is not an Individual Decision”

Herd Immunity Assisted Pandemic Control

By Foss Tighe Since the start of the pandemic, there have been numerous articles about how Herd Immunity is a pipe dream and that it plays no rational role in the management of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, I believe that in countries like the United States, Brazil and Mexico, where attempts to control the virusContinue reading “Herd Immunity Assisted Pandemic Control”

When it comes to re-opening we are on a limited “Budget”

Re-opening across the United States has been an exercise in irrational optimism about the infectiousness of COVID-19. COVID-19 remains a highly infectious virus capable of expontial growth, it is just as infectious as it was 6 months ago. Early in the outbreak in New York State both new infections and deaths were doubling every 3Continue reading “When it comes to re-opening we are on a limited “Budget””

Are We Betting too Heavily on a Vaccine?

There are three approaches to dealing with the Coronavirus. Crush the outbreak through testing, isolation and contact tracing Try to achieve herd immunity by letting the virus spread while protecting vulnerable populations Pursue neither of the above and wait for a vaccine Crush the Outbreak The first option is hard. It requires a well coordinatedContinue reading “Are We Betting too Heavily on a Vaccine?”

Not a Peak, more of a Ridge Walk

By: Foss Tighe May 2, 2020 The first blog post on this site talked about what the other side of the curve might look like. It speculated that the other side of the curve would look nothing like the first side of the curve. Most of the models being used, including IHME at the UniversityContinue reading “Not a Peak, more of a Ridge Walk”

Lets Try Containment Again

By: Foss TigheApril 27, 2020 Biden would jump to the left,And Trump thinks he is right.With No hands on your lipsStrap your mask on tight.But its the nasal swabThat really drives you insane.Lets try Containment again!Lets try Containment again!Sung to the tune of “Lets do the time warp again” In Epidemiological terms, containment is theContinue reading “Lets Try Containment Again”

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