Playing Russian Roulette with Cases

Every time the Corona Virus replicates there is a very small chance that a mutation will occur. Each time a mutation does occur there is a very small chance that the mutation will result in a variant of the virus that is more dangerous to humans. Several “variants of concern” (VOC) have arisen that haveContinue reading “Playing Russian Roulette with Cases”

Vaccine Waning Immunity – Israeli Data

There is has been a great deal of interest in data coming out of Israel regarding possible rapidly waning immunity of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine. This news, combined with the bad news surrounding the virus delta variant represents very discouraging news. Some have concluded that the data from Israel’s health ministry indicate that the vaccineContinue reading “Vaccine Waning Immunity – Israeli Data”

How Many Infections in Your State?

A recent post on how many Americans have been infected discusses the issues relating to estimating the true number of infections in the United States. The post outlines a relatively simply method of using the estimated Infection Fatality Rate to extrapolate the number of infections. Updated 11/23/2020 State Deaths Population Infected* Percent* Alabama 3,459 4,903,185Continue reading “How Many Infections in Your State?”

Trump’s Inaugural gift to Biden

There may be a strange silver lining to Trump’s complete abandonment of all efforts to mitigate the raging conronavirus outbreak in the United States. It is possible that within a few weeks of President Elect taking office, the combination of increasing daily infections and the first 40 or so million vaccinations, the United States mayContinue reading “Trump’s Inaugural gift to Biden”

How many Americans have been infected?

It seems like a pretty simple question. But the answer is not so simple. Just like my earlier post on Case Fatality Rates, an accurate figure is made much more complicated by the high rate of mild and asymptomatic cases of the Coronavirus that often go undetected. So what are some of the ways weContinue reading “How many Americans have been infected?”

Case Fatality Rate – What does it tell us?

By Foss Tighe During the last presidential debate, to counter Biden’s criticism of the President’s handling of the Coronavirus pandemic, President Trump referred to declines in the US Case Fatality Rate (CFR). For months now, Trump has be bragging about the decline in the CFR. What exactly is a Case Fatality Rate, what is theContinue reading “Case Fatality Rate – What does it tell us?”

The Great Barrington Declaration

By Foss Tighe Once again Herd Immunity is in the news. This time in the form of a declaration facilitated by a Libertarian think tank: American Institutes for Economic Research (AIER). The Great Barrington Declaration suggests that governments essentially follow the Swedish approach to the Coronavirus. Protective measures should be put into place for theContinue reading “The Great Barrington Declaration”

Florida: The Experiment we need

By: Foss Tighe On September 25, Gov. Ron DeSantis announced that all remaining coronavirus restrictions in the State of Florida would be lifted. This could be the natural experiment that the people of the United States need to see. What happens when the government removes all restrictions designed to limit the spread of the virus.Continue reading “Florida: The Experiment we need”

Herd Immunity is not an Individual Decision

By Foss Tighe In an number of prior posts I have discussed how Herd Immunity could be a valid public health strategy for dealing with COVID-19. In a recent post I outline how limited herd immunity combined with other outbreak mitigation strategies could work together to slow and reverse the pandemic. I also explore theContinue reading “Herd Immunity is not an Individual Decision”

Herd Immunity Assisted Pandemic Control

By Foss Tighe Since the start of the pandemic, there have been numerous articles about how Herd Immunity is a pipe dream and that it plays no rational role in the management of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, I believe that in countries like the United States, Brazil and Mexico, where attempts to control the virusContinue reading “Herd Immunity Assisted Pandemic Control”

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