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The Risks in Failing to Control Cases

No one is talking about the SARS-2 variant from New Zealand! Nor does the Taiwanese variant ever appear in the news! That is because the chances of a new and dangerous variant developing is directly proportional to the number of cases in a given area. Every time the virus replicates itself there is a reallyContinue reading “The Risks in Failing to Control Cases”

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How Many Infections in Your State?

A recent post on how many Americans have been infected discusses the issues relating to estimating the true number of infections in the United States. The post outlines a relatively simply method of using the estimated Infection Fatality Rate to extrapolate the number of infections. Updated 11/23/2020 State Deaths Population Infected* Percent* Alabama 3,459 4,903,185Continue reading “How Many Infections in Your State?”

Florida: The Experiment we need

By: Foss Tighe On September 25, Gov. Ron DeSantis announced that all remaining coronavirus restrictions in the State of Florida would be lifted. This could be the natural experiment that the people of the United States need to see. What happens when the government removes all restrictions designed to limit the spread of the virus.Continue reading “Florida: The Experiment we need”

When it comes to re-opening we are on a limited “Budget”

Re-opening across the United States has been an exercise in irrational optimism about the infectiousness of COVID-19. COVID-19 remains a highly infectious virus capable of expontial growth, it is just as infectious as it was 6 months ago. Early in the outbreak in New York State both new infections and deaths were doubling every 3Continue reading “When it comes to re-opening we are on a limited “Budget””

Asking Schools to do what Nation Could Not

By Foss Tighe The United States is in the middle on an intense controversy over opening schools in the fall. There are many aspects of this debate. It has taken on strong partisan overtones, with Trump and his supporters forcefully pushing for a re-opening of schools. This is likely driven by the strong desire toContinue reading “Asking Schools to do what Nation Could Not”

Are We Betting too Heavily on a Vaccine?

There are three approaches to dealing with the Coronavirus. Crush the outbreak through testing, isolation and contact tracing Try to achieve herd immunity by letting the virus spread while protecting vulnerable populations Pursue neither of the above and wait for a vaccine Crush the Outbreak The first option is hard. It requires a well coordinatedContinue reading “Are We Betting too Heavily on a Vaccine?”

Not a Peak, more of a Ridge Walk

By: Foss Tighe May 2, 2020 The first blog post on this site talked about what the other side of the curve might look like. It speculated that the other side of the curve would look nothing like the first side of the curve. Most of the models being used, including IHME at the UniversityContinue reading “Not a Peak, more of a Ridge Walk”

Lets Try Containment Again

By: Foss TigheApril 27, 2020 Biden would jump to the left,And Trump thinks he is right.With No hands on your lipsStrap your mask on tight.But its the nasal swabThat really drives you insane.Lets try Containment again!Lets try Containment again!Sung to the tune of “Lets do the time warp again” In Epidemiological terms, containment is theContinue reading “Lets Try Containment Again”

Massachusetts Numbers – Fewer Deaths on Sundays

A quick glance at the Massachusetts daily coronavirus deaths might lead you to think that church services are somehow protective against coronavirus. For the last three Sundays in Massachusetts the daily death count has been substantially lower than the surrounding days. Data collection is a tricky thing, and to stick with the religious theme, oftenContinue reading “Massachusetts Numbers – Fewer Deaths on Sundays”