The Risks in Failing to Control Cases

No one is talking about the SARS-2 variant from New Zealand! Nor does the Taiwanese variant ever appear in the news! That is because the chances of a new and dangerous variant developing is directly proportional to the number of cases in a given area. Every time the virus replicates itself there is a reallyContinue reading “The Risks in Failing to Control Cases”

How Many Infections in Your State?

A recent post on how many Americans have been infected discusses the issues relating to estimating the true number of infections in the United States. The post outlines a relatively simply method of using the estimated Infection Fatality Rate to extrapolate the number of infections. Updated 11/23/2020 State Deaths Population Infected* Percent* Alabama 3,459 4,903,185Continue reading “How Many Infections in Your State?”

How many Americans have been infected?

It seems like a pretty simple question. But the answer is not so simple. Just like my earlier post on Case Fatality Rates, an accurate figure is made much more complicated by the high rate of mild and asymptomatic cases of the Coronavirus that often go undetected. So what are some of the ways weContinue reading “How many Americans have been infected?”

Case Fatality Rate – What does it tell us?

By Foss Tighe During the last presidential debate, to counter Biden’s criticism of the President’s handling of the Coronavirus pandemic, President Trump referred to declines in the US Case Fatality Rate (CFR). For months now, Trump has be bragging about the decline in the CFR. What exactly is a Case Fatality Rate, what is theContinue reading “Case Fatality Rate – What does it tell us?”

Herd Immunity Assisted Pandemic Control

By Foss Tighe Since the start of the pandemic, there have been numerous articles about how Herd Immunity is a pipe dream and that it plays no rational role in the management of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, I believe that in countries like the United States, Brazil and Mexico, where attempts to control the virusContinue reading “Herd Immunity Assisted Pandemic Control”

The Orange Death: COVID-19 Resurgance in the United States

By Foss Tighe In mid April the Trump administration shifted policy away from their limited efforts at controlling COVID-19 to re-opening the U.S. Economy. Daily detected cases in the US had plateaued at around 30,000 cases per day. Deaths in the United States had also plateaued at around 2000 per day. Perhaps more importantly, dailyContinue reading “The Orange Death: COVID-19 Resurgance in the United States”

Not a Peak, more of a Ridge Walk

By: Foss Tighe May 2, 2020 The first blog post on this site talked about what the other side of the curve might look like. It speculated that the other side of the curve would look nothing like the first side of the curve. Most of the models being used, including IHME at the UniversityContinue reading “Not a Peak, more of a Ridge Walk”

Finally Some Epidemiological Science

New York State’s recent study regarding statewide infection rates provided more epidemiological science than all of the Federal government’s contribution since the start of the pandemic. On April 23rd Governor Cuomo announced preliminary results of an antibody study designed to estimate the true number of people who have been infected with the coronavirus in NewContinue reading “Finally Some Epidemiological Science”

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