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How Many Infections in Your State?

A recent post on how many Americans have been infected discusses the issues relating to estimating the true number of infections in the United States. The post outlines a relatively simply method of using the estimated Infection Fatality Rate to extrapolate the number of infections. Updated 11/23/2020 State Deaths Population Infected* Percent* Alabama 3,459 4,903,185Continue reading “How Many Infections in Your State?”

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Case Fatality Rate – What does it tell us?

By Foss Tighe During the last presidential debate, to counter Biden’s criticism of the President’s handling of the Coronavirus pandemic, President Trump referred to declines in the US Case Fatality Rate (CFR). For months now, Trump has be bragging about the decline in the CFR. What exactly is a Case Fatality Rate, what is theContinue reading “Case Fatality Rate – What does it tell us?”

The Great Barrington Declaration

By Foss Tighe Once again Herd Immunity is in the news. This time in the form of a declaration facilitated by a Libertarian think tank: American Institutes for Economic Research (AIER). The Great Barrington Declaration suggests that governments essentially follow the Swedish approach to the Coronavirus. Protective measures should be put into place for theContinue reading “The Great Barrington Declaration”

When it comes to re-opening we are on a limited “Budget”

Re-opening across the United States has been an exercise in irrational optimism about the infectiousness of COVID-19. COVID-19 remains a highly infectious virus capable of expontial growth, it is just as infectious as it was 6 months ago. Early in the outbreak in New York State both new infections and deaths were doubling every 3Continue reading “When it comes to re-opening we are on a limited “Budget””

The Orange Death: COVID-19 Resurgance in the United States

By Foss Tighe In mid April the Trump administration shifted policy away from their limited efforts at controlling COVID-19 to re-opening the U.S. Economy. Daily detected cases in the US had plateaued at around 30,000 cases per day. Deaths in the United States had also plateaued at around 2000 per day. Perhaps more importantly, dailyContinue reading “The Orange Death: COVID-19 Resurgance in the United States”

Asking Schools to do what Nation Could Not

By Foss Tighe The United States is in the middle on an intense controversy over opening schools in the fall. There are many aspects of this debate. It has taken on strong partisan overtones, with Trump and his supporters forcefully pushing for a re-opening of schools. This is likely driven by the strong desire toContinue reading “Asking Schools to do what Nation Could Not”

Lack of a coherent plan endangers social fabric

30 million Americans have applied for unemployment Each day 2,000 Americans die of COVID-19 Which fact scares you more? Which one deserves the more urgent attention? Are their solutions mutually exclusive? Does our Government have a plan? Flattening the Curve is no longer a sufficient plan Flattening the Curve was never a complete plan forContinue reading “Lack of a coherent plan endangers social fabric”

Not a Peak, more of a Ridge Walk

By: Foss Tighe May 2, 2020 The first blog post on this site talked about what the other side of the curve might look like. It speculated that the other side of the curve would look nothing like the first side of the curve. Most of the models being used, including IHME at the UniversityContinue reading “Not a Peak, more of a Ridge Walk”

Ode to the CDC

By: Foss TigheApril 28, 2020 It was probably during the Ebola outbreak in 2000 or 2002 when I remember hearing news reports that “epidemiologists from the Center for Disease Control in Atlanta Georgia were heading to Africa to help fight the Ebola virus…”. My heart swelled with pride and my spine tingled. Founding in theContinue reading “Ode to the CDC”

Lets Try Containment Again

By: Foss TigheApril 27, 2020 Biden would jump to the left,And Trump thinks he is right.With No hands on your lipsStrap your mask on tight.But its the nasal swabThat really drives you insane.Lets try Containment again!Lets try Containment again!Sung to the tune of “Lets do the time warp again” In Epidemiological terms, containment is theContinue reading “Lets Try Containment Again”